Where Have All the Children Gone?

Do you remember the folk song, “Where Have All the Flowers Gone?” It was written by Pete Seeger in 1955, with lyrics inspired by the Cossack folk song, "Koloda-Duda”. As for the melody, Seeger admitted slowing down an Irish lumberjack song (that included the words “Johnson says he'll load more hay”) to fit the lyrics.

Seeger’s folk classic was first recorded by the Kingston Trio and the Landsmen in 1961, followed by Peter, Paul, and Mary’s hit version the following year. Since then, vocalists ranging from Marlene Dietrich and Bobby Darin to Joan Baez and Johnny Rivers have recorded it… and there have even been multiple country-western versions by such luminaries as Roy Orbison, Olivia Newton John, and the duo of Lester Flatts and Earl Scruggs.

Seeger’s song fit perfectly into the turbulent decade of the 1960s, when Vietnam War protests and political assassinations dominated our nation’s headlines. But today, America is facing a different kind of crisis, and it is largely being ignored by academics, politicians, and the mainstream media.

Let’s call it “Where Have All the Children Gone?”

In 1950, the average American couple produced 3.2 children (or 24.268 children per 1,000 adults). My parents – who had six kids in nine years – certainly did their part as did many other post-WWII couples. In turn, my siblings and I have produced 11 offspring and 27 grandchildren.

Sociologists say that a healthy society needs to produce a minimum of 2.3 children per couple to maintain the status quo. However, couples in the United States are currently reproducing at a historically low rate of just 1.6 children (or 12.009 children per 1,000 adults), a trend that has been decreasing by 2% per year over the past decade.

Even more startling, 44% of couples in their 20s and 30s say that they are considering not having any children at all… and 21% of them said that climate change is the biggest reason.

Currently, the U.S. ranks 16th in birthrates among industrialized countries, one slot below Aruba and one slot above Australia. Overall, Israel leads the pack at 18.768 births per 1,000 people with Panama (17.661) and Argentina (16.009) following closely behind. Bringing up the rear are South Korea (6.743), Greece (6.870), and Japan (6.995).

Japan, in particular, is finding out that an aging population that doesn’t adequately replace itself creates all kinds of economic and societal problems. So far, the U.S. has avoided similar problems because of the dramatic increase in both legal and illegal immigration. However, that is a short-term fix that brings with it a whole new set of challenges.

Hopefully, the cautious optimism that has resulted from Donald Trump’s election will translate into more babies being born in America. Hmmm… instead of Baby Boomers, maybe they will be called Trumpers, Trumpets, or the Orange Generation.

All kidding aside, when Social Security was enacted in 1935, the average life expectancy for an American male was 59 years old and there were 16 workers for every person receiving benefits. Today, men in America live an average of 73.2 years (down precipitously from 78.8 in 2019, largely due to Covid) and the worker to recipient ratio is now just 2.5 to 1.

That, my friends, is unsustainable without dramatically raising the retirement age or drastically reducing benefits… unless, of course, couples start having more babies who grow up to join the workforce.

In other words, we need the Orange Generation to get busy (but responsibly so!)