The Widening Gender Gap

For the first 144 years of our country, only men were permitted to vote. That was wrong.

Finally, with the ratification of the 19th Amendment on August 18, 1920, and its certification eight days later by Secretary of State Bainbridge Colby, women’s suffrage became a reality. That was right.

Men tend to be conservative and to vote accordingly. That is good. In fact, 50% of men identify as Republicans and only 42% as Democrats. That is very good. However, that ratio is down from 52% to 39% in 1994. That is bad. Meanwhile, women lean Democratic by 56% to 38%, up from 48% to 42% in 1994. That is very bad.

Today, there is a 15-point gap between how married and unmarried women vote. That is bad. Married women tend to be conservative. That is good. Unmarried women tend to be liberal. That is bad.

There is also a gender gap, especially among Gen Z voters, ages 18-29. For instance, the percentage of males in that age range who identify as Republicans rose from 38% in 2013 to 49% in 2023. That is good. Unfortunately, the percentage of females in that same age group who identify as liberals is 46%. That is bad.

In 1980, the percentage of eligible male voters and the percentage of eligible female voters who cast a ballot in the presidential election were identical at 64%. Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter that year, which was very, very good.

In 2016, a higher percentage of women (63%) voted than men (59%). The gender gap was even wider amongst Black voters, where 64% of Black women voted and only 54% of Black men did likewise. That was very bad. However, Donald Trump still managed to defeat Hillary Clinton, which again was very, very good.

So, what does this all mean? Here are a few suggestions for the GOP to win in 2024 and beyond.

1. Focus more on younger voters, who not only are more fluid in their political leanings, but who also will be voting (and influencing even younger voters) for generations to come.

2. Push for men to vote in greater numbers. Most elections are decided by narrow margins and liberal women vote at a higher percentage than conservative men.

3. Attract independent “swing” voters, who not only occupy the middle ground politically, but who are also now the majority. In 2021, 29% of voters self-identified as Democrats, 27% as Republicans, and a whopping 42% as independents.

Win the youth vote… win the independent vote… and drive men to the polls in greater numbers, and the GOP will triumph in November. Meanwhile, figure out why women lean both liberal and Democrat, and address those concerns without compromising your party principles (i.e. abortion).

Finally, the Republican Party should position and promote itself as the pro-family party. Push and pass tax incentives for married couples – the building block of our society – and reduce benefits for unmarried but cohabitating couples. Marriage is more than a piece of paper. It is a commitment, so reward it.

As Sir Winston Churchill reportedly said, “If you are 20 and not a liberal, you have no heart. If you are 40 and not a conservative, you have no brains.” In other words, once the reality of a home mortgage, a quality education for your children, and the escalating cost of raising a family kick in… it is game, set, and match.

Republicans win and Democrats lose, and that is very, very good.