The Twists and Turns of Presidential Elections - Part 2

The 2000 presidential campaign, for all its post-election drama about hanging chads, did not have a defining moment that tipped the scales in favor of one candidate over the other. George W. Bush and Al Gore both handled themselves relatively well on the stump and in the debates.

However, the 2004 race was a different story as a series of “swift boat” ads sank John Kerry’s campaign almost as soon as it was launched. Americans revere veterans, but not those who embellish their service records… and it showed at the polls.

The 2008 election featured Arizona Sen. John McCain, a seasoned Senate insider, versus a relative newcomer to Washington, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. McCain, a Vietnam War hero who was portrayed as a maverick in his 2000 primary campaign against George W. Bush, lacked the vitality he possessed just eight years earlier. Meanwhile, Obama had youth, charisma, and eloquence on his side.

The seminal event of the campaign occurred at the first debate before a single word was spoken. As the two candidates walked onto the stage, the visuals said it all. Simply put, McCain represented the past and Obama epitomized the future. And then, when McCain suspended his campaign to return to Washington to attend to the financial crisis gripping the nation, the race lost all its suspense. The only thing that remained was counting the ballots on Election Day to see what Obama’s margin of victory would be.

Four years later, dogged by a sluggish economy and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, President Obama was ripe for the picking. In the first debate, he appeared listless and strangely disinterested as Mitt Romney registered a decisive win. But, for whatever reason, Romney decided to play it safe from that point on in the campaign instead of moving in for the kill when he had Obama on the ropes.

In the second debate, which was conducted using a town hall format, Romney missed perhaps the greatest opportunity to deliver a knockout punch in presidential campaign history. Speaking about the attack on the U.S. embassy in Benghazi and the deaths of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans, President Obama said that he took offense at the allegations that he and his administration had mishandled the situation.

Sitting in front of my TV, I fully expected Romney to say something like, “With all due respect, Mr. President, I take offense that you abandoned those four brave men, despite repeated pleas for help, as Ambassador Stevens was murdered and his body desecrated and the others fought for hours on a rooftop while you had American fighter jets stationed just 60 minutes away in Sicily.”

Instead, Romney cowered like a dog and eventually left the stage with his tail between his legs. Obama lived to fight another day and – thanks to Super Storm Sandy and a photo-op hug from New Jersey Governor Chris Christie – he KO’d Romney on Election Day.

One hundred years from now, political scientists will study the 2016 presidential campaign the way generals and military historians today analyze Napoleon’s conquest of Europe and Grant’s siege of Vicksburg. How did a real estate developer, casino owner, and reality TV star defeat 15 other Republican challengers – including three sitting senators and one former one, and two current governors and two former ones – for his party’s nomination? And how did this same political novice and quintessential Washington outsider upset the odds-on favorite, who was the darling of the liberal media and the ultimate establishment candidate?

Therein lies the key… and a hint as to how President Trump can still pull off a come-from-behind victory in 2020. Four years ago, Donald Trump had two things going for him. First, he was from outside the Beltway. Second and perhaps more importantly, he wasn’t Hillary Clinton, one of the least likeable candidates in modern political history.

In 2016, voters were ready and willing to elect someone with zero political experience because they were tired of the status quo. They wanted someone to “drain the swamp” and make government more accessible and more responsive to the average American. Donald J. Trump – blunt and brash, untamed and unvarnished – fit that mold to a tee.

Now, however, these same voters are looking for something more. Polls show that they favor Trump’s policies, with 56% of respondents saying that they are better off today than they were four years ago. They also give President Trump high marks for how he has handled the economy despite the recession caused by the pandemic.

But, after four years in office, many people have grown tired of Trump’s tweets and tirades. They approve of the job he has done, but they don’t approve of him… or his behavior. For them, his churlish conduct at the first debate may have been the last straw.

Unfortunately for Donald Trump, Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton. Biden may be a career politician, which is something many voters despise, but he is less caustic than Clinton and less combative than Trump. And voters, who are weary of the pandemic and wary about the future, may be looking for some stability and a little peace and quiet amidst the social upheaval and constant turmoil of 2020. For that reason, a familiar – and seemingly less threatening – face like Biden’s may have some appeal.

And yet, as we suspected all along and as is becoming more apparent with each passing day, Joe Biden is simply not up to the job. Whereas Donald Trump is an energetic 74-year old, Joe Biden is showing every sign of his advanced age, both mentally and physically. That, no pun intended, is a trump card for the president.

So, without further ado, here are my suggestions to President Trump for how he can rally and win on November 3rd…

1. Offer to release your full financial records in exchange for Joe Biden’s full medical records, including a recent test of his cognitive abilities.

2. Demonstrate a new and improved Donald Trump when you take the stage at the next debate. Let’s face it: you will never win a Miss Congeniality contest and we don’t want you to. But we do want – and expect – you to act more presidential and statesmanlike. After all, you’ve had four years of practice.

3. Let Joe Biden talk. I repeat, let Joe Biden talk. Don’t interrupt him a single time. I am willing to bet that, given enough rope and empty airtime to fill, Biden will verbally hang himself.

4. EVERY time a question is asked at the debate or in the press, start by asking Joe if he intends to pack the court. Then ask him if he fully supports – or will publicly disavow – the Green New Deal. Tie his answer to its impact on J-O-B-S. Finally, ask him over and over if he backs law enforcement or BLM, police officers or Antifa. Make him choose.

5. Spend your own money. I receive dozens of text messages and emails every day asking me to financially support you and virtually every Republican officeholder who is in a tough race. And yet, you have repeatedly said that you would spend as much of your own money as needed to win. Trust me, Mr. President, it is needed… NOW!

6. Make this election about your policies and your performance contrasted with Biden’s. Do not make it about personalities. You win on the first; but lose on the second.

7. Frame the debate in broad, bold, and diametrically opposing terms. Personal Freedom vs. Government Control. Self-Determination vs. Socialism. Law and Order vs. Anarchy, Bedlam, and Mob Rule.

It’s “crunch time”, Mr. President. Time for the two-minute drill if you’re going to pull this one out in the final seconds. And so, I pray that you will heed my advice or that of sensible people around you who will tell you not what you want to hear, but what you need to hear.

Adopt these seven strategies and I believe you have a 50-50 chance of winning, Mr. President. Dismiss them and double down on how the campaign has been operating so far and I fear President Joe Biden (and his eventual successor, Kamala Harris) will have control of both houses of Congress to push through their radical progressive agenda.

I am praying for you, sir.