The Main Event... and the Undercard

On June 19, 1936, 31-year-old German heavyweight Max Schmeling upset 22-year-old American boxer Joe Louis, who had entered the ring as a 10-1 favorite. After the fight, Louis was roundly criticized for taking Schmeling too lightly and, as a result, not training properly.

Two years later, almost to the day, the pair met at Yankee Stadium for their much-anticipated rematch. Unlike the first fight, which Schmeling won with a knockout in the 12th round, the rematch only lasted a few minutes with Louis flooring Schmeling in the very first round.

These two fights were reminiscent of the Jack Dempsey vs. Gene Tunney title bouts in 1926 and 1927. Tunney won the first fight with a 10-round decision fought in the pouring rain, stripping Dempsey of his heavyweight championship belt in the process. Tunney also won the rematch, which featured the infamous “long count” which gave Tunney a few extra seconds to recover from being knocked down because Dempsey was slow in going to a neutral corner.

Fast forward 44 years to the widely hyped “Fight of the Century” featuring Smokin’ Joe Frazier and Muhammad Ali. Both boxers were undefeated at the time, with Frazier being the undisputed heavyweight champion and Ali in his third fight since returning from a two-year suspension for evading the Vietnam draft (his conviction was later overturned on appeal).

Frazier knocked down Ali for the first time in his career in the 15th round and went on to win a unanimous decision. Undaunted, Ali won their rematch in 1974 as well as the “Thrilla in Manila” in 1975.

I chose to introduce today’s blog post with a little boxing history because, the way it is shaping up, the 2024 presidential election could feature a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Biden won their first bout in 2020 in controversial style, but polls now show Trump as a slight favorite to reclaim the belt… I mean the White House.

However, the boxing metaphors don’t end there. Like so many professional fighters (Ali being one), Joe Biden apparently doesn’t know when to hang up his gloves. And so, he is preparing to climb over the ropes and into the ring at the ripe-old age of 81. Whether he can defend himself against Donald Trump’s haymakers remains to be seen, but I sincerely doubt that the octogenarian will be able to lift his arms to throw many punches of his own.

Oddsmakers are predicting that our oldest-ever president will hit the canvas and it will be “lights out” for the Biden administration, one of the most failed presidencies in American history. However, I predict a different outcome…

No, I don’t think that Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump in a rematch because I don’t think there will be one. On the contrary, I suspect that the closer we get to the Democratic convention next July, the more pressure will be placed on President Biden to “retire from the ring.” I simply don’t see the Democrats nominating Sleepy Joe if he is trailing badly in the polls.

So, who will actually be swapping punches with Donald Trump next fall? If I were a bookmaker, I would lay odds on a Trump vs. Gavin Newsom matchup, in which case the younger and quicker Californian may prove too much for the 78-year-old Trump to handle. It is one thing to avoid a few jabs or left hooks thrown by Geritol Joe, but Newsom will be 57 years old on November 5, 2024… more than two decades younger than Mr. Trump.

Yes, President Trump with his America First policies has a far more impressive record in the political ring than Newsom, whose tenures as mayor of San Francisco and governor of California have been unmitigated disasters. However, rest assured that the mainstream media will do everything in its power to sugarcoat Newsom’s failures and to focus instead on Mr. Trump’s perceived negatives.

Sadly, when the dust clears and the ring announcer declares the winner, the odds are that the younger man with the better hair will be the victor, if only because uneducated voters often choose style over substance.

Which brings me to the undercard…

In boxing terminology, the undercard is a preliminary bout between two lesser-known fighters who are hoping to make a name for themselves. The winner of the undercard match often gets a shot at the title down the road. And so, pay attention to the November 30th debate between Newsom and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Should Biden or Trump stumble between now and Election Day 2024, either of these two men – or both – could be their party’s standard bearer in the general election.

If not in 2024, very possibly in 2028.