Never Play Poker with Donald Trump

In poker terms, it’s called a “tell”. It could be a nervous twitch, a bead of sweat on your forehead, or something as small as a raised eyebrow. But trust me, it’s there.

Even some of the most seasoned poker players in the world occasionally reveal the cards they are holding in their hand by the way they act, speak, or move. That small “tell” is a dead giveaway that lets the other players know if you are holding a straight flush, a full house, or just a pair of deuces.

A “tell” is especially hard to disguise when the pressure mounts and the stakes grow higher. If you are bluffing, your cheeks may blush a shade or two and your voice may crack ever so slightly. Either way, a world-class gambler is sure to pick up on the cue… and call your bluff.

I have been watching Donald Trump very closely since he won the election and even more so since he was sworn into office. And guess what? He doesn’t have a “tell”.

On Inauguration Day, President Trump gave notice that there was a new sheriff in town. After enumerating the various ways that Joe Biden and his administration had betrayed the country, the Constitution, and their constituents, President Trump laid out an aggressive agenda of things he intended to accomplish over the next four years. Little did we know that he would get many of them done in the first two weeks of his second term.

I am sure that heads shook and tongues wagged when President Trump told his worldwide audience that America was going to seize control of the Panama Canal. Is he serious, the Deep State and the international community wondered? Will he really send American troops to invade the isthmus?

I guess we will never know, because within mere days of his none-too-veiled threat, the government of Panama had given China the boot and turned control back over to Uncle Sam. Sure, the Panamanians will still own the actual property, but it will be Donald J. Trump and his surrogates who will be calling the shots.

No sooner had the ink dried on that new agreement than President Trump issued ultimatums to Canada and Mexico. Either secure the U.S. border on your side or there will be serious consequences, including a 25% tariff. When Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau threatened tariffs of their own, Trump went ahead and implemented his. Within hours, Sheinbaum announced that she was sending 10,000 Mexican troops to the border, causing Trump to grant a 30-day reprieve. Trudeau also buckled, saying that in exchange for a similar 30-day delay his government would name a fentanyl czar, list Mexican cartels as terrorist groups, and launch a “Canada-U.S. Joint Strike Force to combat organized crime, fentanyl and money laundering” with a $1.5 billion price tag.

In case you’re keeping score, that’s Trump three – and Panama, Canada, and Mexico zero.

Actually, make that Trump four and the rest of the world zero because after refusing to allow U.S. planes loaded with Columbian criminals to land in Bogota, President Gustavo Petro not only acquiesced to Trump’s demands, but offered to send his own planes at his own expense to expedite the deportations. Petro also urged undocumented Colombians in the United States to quit their jobs “immediately” and return to Colombia. All it took was the threat of a 25% tariff… followed by a 50% tariff a week later.

And yet, President “Poker Face” still wasn’t done.

Earlier this week, President Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and during their joint press conference, he announced that the United States would be taking over the Gaza Strip, clearing it of all incendiary devices and debris from the recent war and building a “Riviera of the Middle East” in its place (minus its current occupants whom he suggested would be relocated to other Arab nations).

Netanyahu seemed to like the proposal as do roughly 70% of the Israelis polled by the Jewish People Policy Institute, a think tank in Jerusalem. The Jewish respondents called it a "practical plan that should be pursued", but Arab citizens overwhelmingly opposed the idea. So did other countries from Turkey to Australia.

"Trump must be taken with a grain of salt," Israeli journalist Amir Ettinger wrote Wednesday in the right-leaning Israel Hayom newspaper. “The plan might be that Gaza is eventually taken off the table in exchange for the return of the hostages, the expulsion of Hamas leaders and many of its operatives, and normalization with Saudi Arabia without demands in exchange for promises regarding a Palestinian state."

However, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that he would reserve judgment for now. "On the day that I will see American soldiers coming in great numbers to Gaza, I will then make up my mind how serious it is," Olmert told NPR. "Every party involved except for Israel is completely against it."

Meanwhile, former Israeli Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami claimed that the U.S. plan is “utterly unrealistic, and it reflects a total lack of understanding of the historical process of where these Palestinians come from, what is their collective identity.”

"This man is an actor in a global theater, and this has been his tactics, playing big, drawing the world's attention to what he says, getting his rivals out of balance, and eventually something will happen that goes his way," Ben-Ami said. "Maybe this is a tactical sort of move that tries to say a big thing in order to eventually get a more modest solution."

Some Israeli observers have suggested that President Trump could be using a negotiating tactic known in Israel as "putting in a goat", which involves making a demand for the purpose of removing it later and appearing to have granted a concession. Netanyahu successfully employed that strategy during Trump's first term, declaring that he planned to annex parts of the West Bank, then tabling the move in exchange for a Trump-brokered deal for diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

The point is that no one but Donald Trump and perhaps his closest confidents know when he is bluffing and when he is not. Maybe we should all read (or re-read) Trump: The Art of the Deal, his 1987 biographical blueprint on how to beat your opponents at the negotiating table.

President Trump’s strategy reminds me of the one implemented by Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. When asked to describe his foreign policy, the Gipper replied, “It’s simple. We win and they lose.”

And that, my friend, is what happens every time a foreign leader tries to take on the 45th and 47th President of the United States. Simply put, they are outwitted, outmaneuvered, and overmatched.

Better to fold your hand now and save some face, because Donald J. Trump always seems to have an ace or two up his sleeve.