Let the VP Sweepstakes Begin

I am writing this article on the afternoon of March 5th, just a few hours before the polls close in the 15 states and one U.S. territory where Super Tuesday primary elections or caucuses are being held. I could have used the word “contested,” but that would be stretching the truth because Donald Trump is expected to secure the GOP nomination as early as March 12th and Joe Biden should have enough delegates to earn the Democratic nomination by March 19th or shortly thereafter.

And so, in this rematch of the 2020 general election, pitting a soon-to-be 78-year-old challenger against an 81-year-old incumbent, the only drama that remains is who Donald Trump will choose to be his vice-presidential running mate. As for Joe Biden – for good, better, or worse (mostly worse) – he seems to be saddled with Kamala Harris, America’s least popular vice president in recent history.

If I were a betting man, I would wager that Mr. Trump has already made his decision. Just like he teased the country about a potential run in 2016 before finally descending the escalator at Trump Tower, I think Mr. Trump is simply dragging out the suspense for promotional reasons. Ever the showman, he likes to keep the audience guessing because it generates lots of press.

That being said, my gut tells me that there are only three potential candidates for the VP position and here they are in descending order of their likelihood…

Sen. Tim Scott – The junior U.S. senator from South Carolina checks off virtually every possible box for Donald Trump. Like Mike Pence before him, Scott is an evangelical Christian who wears his faith on his sleeve. He is also contagiously optimistic in the mold of Ronald Reagan and his compelling “from cotton to Congress” family history epitomizes the American dream. Even his senate colleagues who may disagree with Scott find it impossible to dislike him. And yes, he is black, a demographic that seems to be slipping away from Joe Biden if recent polls can be believed.

I place 50-50 odds on Tim Scott being Donald Trump’s running mate this November.

Gov. Kristi Noem – The two-term governor of South Dakota was previously a four-term congresswoman from the Mount Rushmore State. In her first congressional race, Noem won by just two percentage points. However, in her three re-election bids, she won by margins of 14, 34, and 28 percent. Likewise, Noem eked out a slim 3.4% victory over her Democrat opponent when she first ran for governor in 2018. But four years later in a race which the pundits thought would be close, she crushed House Democratic Minority Leader Jamie Smith, 62%-35%, flipping 17 counties from blue to red while garnering the most votes in South Dakota’s history.

In other words, Kristi Noem tends to grow on people and there are some indications that Donald Trump would like to reward her early endorsement of his candidacy by making her his running mate. Doing so would help Mr. Trump with the white suburban woman vote, although Noem’s strong pro-life position (which I admire) might work against here there as well.

Will Donald Trump go out on a limb and pick Kristi Noem, positioning her as his heir apparent to become America’s first female president in 2028? Mr. Trump is a gambler, but something tells me he thinks Tim Scott is a safer bet, so I give Gov. Noem a 35% chance of being selected.

Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard – Speaking of rolling the dice, choosing the former Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii who left her party after unsuccessfully challenging for its presidential nomination in 2020 would be a high stakes maneuver that would upset political apple carts on both sides of the aisle. Gabbard is extremely poised and articulate and her combat duty in Iraq and Kuwait – she currently holds the rank of lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserves – is a big-time plus.

Tapping Tulsi as his running mate would allow Trump to publicly tweak the Democrat hierarchy who twice snubbed Gabbard: in 2012 when she applied to fill Sen. Daniel Inouye’s seat in the U.S. Senate upon his death, and in 2020 when she was the only presidential candidate who won delegates not to be invited to address the Democratic national convention.

However, Gabbard is Hindu as well as pro-choice, which would not set well with large portions of Trump’s conservative base… and so I give her a 15% chance of being asked to join his ticket. That being said, wouldn’t you just love watching her dismantle Kamala Harris is a vice-presidential debate where Ms. Harris couldn’t play the female or the minority card?

Other names that have been dangled to the press include entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York. The first two are far better known, but I don’t believe either is under serious consideration. Stefanik is a wild card, largely because of her early and unwavering support of Mr. Trump, but at age 39, I don’t think she is quite ready for prime time.

Let the VP sweepstakes begin!